Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management, 1st Edition

  • Published By: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-10: 1848162715
  • ISBN-13: 9781848162716
  • DDC: 627.4
  • Grade Level Range: College Freshman - College Senior
  • 684 Pages | eBook
  • Original Copyright 2014 | Published/Released December 2014
  • This publication's content originally published in print form: 2014

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This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.

Table of Contents

Front Cover.
Half Title Page.
Title Page.
Copyright Page.
1: Introduction.
2: Flood Risk Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty.
3: Use of Models in Flood Risk Management.
4: Theoretical Perspectives.
5: A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis.
6: Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty.
7: Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty.
8: The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty.
9: Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis.
10: Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs.
11: Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis.
12: Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values.
13: Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling.
14: Flood Defence Reliability Analysis.
15: Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas.
16: The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments.
17: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary.
18: Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting.
19: Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting.
20: A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting.
21: Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications.
22: Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the Us National Weather Service.
23: Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft Fews Forecasting System.
24: Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting.
25: Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk.
26: Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk.
27: Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk.
28: Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change.
29: Communicating Uncertainties.
30: Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science.