Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter’s examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel® macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization.
Table of Contents
1. Forecasting, the Why and How.
2. Basic Tools for Forecasting.
3. Forecasting Trends: Exponential Smoothing.
4. Seasonal Series: Forecasting and Decomposition.
5. State-Space Models for Time Series.
6. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models.
7. Simple Linear Regression for Forecasting.
8. Multiple Regression for Time Series.
9. Model Building.
10. Advanced Methods of Forecasting.
11. Judgment-Based Forecasts.
12. Putting Forecasting Methods to Work.
13. Forecasting in Practice.
Appendix A: Basic Statistical Concepts (online only).
Appendix B: Glossary (online only).
Appendix C: Forecasting Software (online only).