Higher Education

Principles of Business Forecasting, 1st Edition

  • Keith Ord Georgetown University
  • Robert Fildes Lancaster University
  • ISBN-10: 0324311273  |  ISBN-13: 9780324311273
  • 528 Pages
  • © 2013 | Published
  • College Bookstore Wholesale Price = $148.50
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About

Overview

Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter’s examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel® macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization.

Features and Benefits

  • An emphasis on incorporating the latest research in forecasting methodology helps students prepare for a managerial or analytic career and to help current practitioners make more effective forecasts.
  • The authors base their approach to forecasting on a series of stages: Purpose, Horizon, Information, Value, and Evaluation.
  • The chapter organization is flexible and designed for students or current practitioners: Introduction (chapters 1-2), Extrapolative methods (Chapters 3-6), Statistical model building (Chapters 7–9), and Advanced methods and forecasting practice (Chapters 10 – 13).
  • The authors illustrate forecasting techniques in a variety of software environments including Excel®, Minitab®, and SSPS so that users can apply the methodology that best fits their available resources.
  • Discussion Questions are placed throughout each chapter for students to think beyond technical issues.
  • End-of-chapter Principles reinforce a consistent foundation of good forecasting practices
  • End-of-chapter Exercises help students consider the role of the practicing forecaster.
  • Students and instructors can conveniently access the text data sets on their companion sites.

Table of Contents

1. Forecasting, the Why and How.
2. Basic Tools for Forecasting.
3. Forecasting Trends: Exponential Smoothing.
4. Seasonal Series: Forecasting and Decomposition.
5. State-Space Models for Time Series.
6. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models.
7. Simple Linear Regression for Forecasting.
8. Multiple Regression for Time Series.
9. Model Building.
10. Advanced Methods of Forecasting.
11. Judgment-Based Forecasts.
12. Putting Forecasting Methods to Work.
13. Forecasting in Practice.
Appendix A: Basic Statistical Concepts (online only).
Appendix B: Glossary (online only).
Appendix C: Forecasting Software (online only).
Index.

Supplements

All supplements have been updated in coordination with the main title. Select the main title's "About" tab, then select "What's New" for updates specific to title's edition.

For more information about these supplements, or to obtain them, contact your Learning Consultant.

Instructor Supplements

Instructor's Resource CD-ROM  (ISBN-10: 0324311257 | ISBN-13: 9780324311259)

Place the key teaching resources you need at your fingertips with this all-in-one resource. The IRCD contains the Excel® Data Sets from the text, the Solutions Manual, and PowerPoint® lecture slides. The Excel® Data Sets include all of the data sets used in the text examples and exercises. The authors also provide the basic software for carrying out some of the forecasting methods described in some of the chapters. Written by the authors, the Solutions Manual includes solutions to all the Exercises. PowerPoint® slides clarify content and guide student note-taking. Both the Solutions Manual and PowerPoint® slides are also available on the instructor companion site, and the Excel® Data Sets are available on both the instructor and student companion sites.

Meet the Author

Author Bio

Keith Ord

Keith Ord is Sebes Fellow and Professor in the Operations and Information Management group at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. He completed his graduate work at the University of London and held faculty positions at the Universities of Bristol and Warwick before moving to The Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and then to Georgetown University in 1999. His research interests include time series and forecasting, spatial modeling and the statistical modeling of business processes. He is a co-author of the 2008 research monograph FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: THE STATE SPACE APPROACH and also co-authored Kendall's ADVANCED THEORY OF STATISTICS. He has served as an editor of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING and is currently an associate editor, as well as being on the editorial boards of several other journals. Keith is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and of the International Institute of Forecasters.

Robert Fildes

Robert Fildes is Distinguished Professor of Management Science in the School of Management, Lancaster University and Director of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. He has a mathematics degree from Oxford and a Ph.D. from the University of California in Statistics. He was co-founder in 1981 of the JOURNAL OF FORECASTING and in 1985 of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING. For ten years from 1988 he was Editor-in-Chief of the IJF and remains an associate editor. He was president of the International Institute of Forecasters between 2000 and 2004. His research interests are concerned with the comparative evaluation of different forecasting methods, the implementation of improved forecasting procedures in organizations and the design of forecasting systems. In 1976 he wrote one of the earliest business forecasting textbooks. Though long out-of-print, many of its core ideas have survived the test of time. Robert is a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters and of the Operational Research Society.