Chapter 18

A Growing Threat from Iran?

Since the overthrow of the Iraqi government by U.S. military forces in the spring of 2003, the American military has added the occupation of that country to its already sizeable list of responsibilities in Afghanistan, Europe, the Pacific, and elsewhere. To meet these growing military demands, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has proposed that the United States increase the overall size of its military by nearly 100,000  troops. That would bring the total active-duty force of the United States to approximately 1.5 million soldiers and personnel.

Gates has publicly expressed concerns that the already stretched capacity of the U.S. military leaves it in little position to even rattle its sabers to gain leverage against upstarts such as Iran, which fired unarmed missiles on November 2, 2006, as part of a series of military war games. Since 1992 Iran has produced its own tanks, armoured personnel carriers, guided missiles, submarines, and even one fighter plane. Meanwhile, Iran’s current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (pictured above), has so far refused the demands of the UN Security Council to stop Iran’s nuclear program, claiming that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is for peaceful purposes only. The Iranian presidential elections of 2009 produced a surprising landslide win for Ahmadinejad, followed by allegations of fraud and widespread protests.

As one of the three members of President George W. Bush’s declared “axis of evil” (along with Iraq and North Korea), Iran’s warlike gestures may ultimately force the U.S. government to once again exercise its military power in the Middle East.  Indeed, despite offering prospects for improved U.S. foreign relations elsewhere, the Obama administration has backed increased sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, and President Obama himself has condemned the Iranian government’s mistreatment of international journalists covering the elections.  Still, even if Secretary Gates’s requests are met, is the United States really in a position to offer a military challenge to Iran at the same time that it is maintaining an occupying force in Afghanistan and Iraq? Furthermore, should it be prepared to do so?